Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 30.343496 36.083584 42.385441 49.787462 58.212144 67.470563 78.381919
2025-01-26 22.419215 30.151040 39.476635 51.417940 66.155965 83.597593 105.633177
2025-02-02 18.708278 27.609566 39.118661 54.793426 75.254319 100.703436 134.351705
2025-02-09 15.598248 24.985280 37.876369 56.371474 81.654300 114.387197 159.251298
2025-02-16 13.147151 22.707623 36.573240 57.404074 87.041761 126.744402 182.826871
2025-02-23 10.951504 20.355741 34.727644 57.273196 90.554841 136.540022 203.273413
2025-03-02 8.983424 17.974350 32.444507 56.115359 92.305828 143.782621 220.376416
2025-03-09 7.596542 16.291071 30.972350 55.921525 95.283068 152.723476 240.076829
2025-03-16 5.965439 13.851595 27.909130 52.827320 93.506941 154.527717 249.504223
2025-03-23 5.347331 13.194325 27.764612 54.410209 99.007392 167.244576 275.226315
2025-03-30 4.486528 11.881267 26.269776 53.525925 100.428678 173.779353 291.972627
2025-04-06 4.138798 11.579540 26.586711 55.780917 107.069703 188.585684 321.691167
2025-04-13 3.149544 9.707713 23.784054 52.435941 104.552590 189.636403 331.638113
2025-04-20 2.792437 9.248755 23.749728 54.237436 111.068231 205.597680 365.762149
2025-04-27 2.621154 9.216191 24.589728 57.768215 120.835846 227.302072 409.844550
2025-05-04 2.327295 8.780413 24.487240 59.415988 127.298698 243.815050 446.256324
2025-05-11 2.036031 8.269363 24.131451 60.493822 132.750989 258.843580 480.812549
2025-05-18 1.718002 7.579243 23.243984 60.357223 135.884361 270.019008 509.433254
2025-05-25 1.399027 6.772701 21.931068 59.148654 136.840612 277.409786 531.983375
2025-06-01 1.176401 6.210134 21.127658 58.946308 139.695709 288.204823 560.594380
2025-06-08 0.883046 5.253754 19.097793 55.715461 136.240184 287.500630 569.497170
2025-06-15 0.793723 5.073109 19.167150 57.368433 142.797843 305.198218 610.745103
2025-06-22 0.645426 4.567945 18.208941 56.445045 143.926836 312.930017 634.829463